Fangraphs Offseason Article

[edavis0308]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... the-twins/

More of the same really, but its nice to see people from outside the organazation give praise.

[DPJ]

http://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/8653916481

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4890362&name=law_keith

Even Keith Law approves...

[ChoneZone]

By retaining Pavano and watching Fragile Frankie Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball.

That's some unexpectedly great praise for our rotation, although I wholeheartedly agree with it. I think people get too wrapped up in the disappointment of our rotation from last season and don't realize how high the ceiling can be for our pitching staff. Of course its certainly possible that the ghosts of the past can cause guys like Pavano and Liriano to stumble, but we've got some big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

[crapforks]

big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

Quick, name a MLB team that can't say exactly that...

[a-wan]

big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

Quick, name a MLB team that can't say exactly that...

Royals!

[edavis0308]

big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

Quick, name a MLB team that can't say exactly that...

As far as all 5 pitchers? Lets see...

Mariners Tigers Royals Indians Pirates Padres Braves Orioles Blue Jays Cubs Astros. Off the top of my head.

I kid though. I get the point you are making.

[edavis0308]

http://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/8653916481

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4890362&name=law_keith

Even Keith Law approves...

Hudson another upgrade for Twins

Friday, February 5, 2010 | Feedback | Print Entry

The Twins continue a quietly solid offseason that should make them contenders again in a weak division in 2010 by signing Orlando "Terrible HJs" Hudson, a far better hitter than anyone the Twins ran out at second base in 2009. Minnesota's second basemen "hit" -- and I use that term loosely -- an aggregate .209/.302/.267 in 2009; American League second basemen (including the Twins' culprits) hit .275/.336/.428 on the season. That offensive sinkhole cost the Twins at least two wins over the course of last season, which at the very least meant the difference between entering the playoffs with a somewhat rested pitching staff and entering them having thrown everything against the wall just to get in.


Hudson had an unusually strong year hitting from the left side, but even if he reverts to his previous form at the plate will give the Twins more baserunners and more thump from a position where they were getting marginally more offense than they'd have received from sending a good-hitting pitcher to the plate. Hudson was a premium defensive player while he was with Toronto, but spent the last four years with teams that emphasized defense less than the Jays did, and his defense suffered, with traditional evaluations and defensive metrics agreeing that he was average or even a tick below. It's possible that was just a function of age, but it's also possible that Hudson needs to be with a coach (or staff) who works with him constantly on his glovework for him to be effective on defense; it's one area of the game where coaching can make a huge difference, including areas like positioning. The Twins have generally run good defensive clubs out there the last few years, and they've been willing to sacrifice some offense for better defense -- it's mostly speculation on my part, but I think there's a good chance that Hudson rediscovers some of his lost defensive value in Minnesota.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote Friday that the Dodgers were disappointed in how slow Hudson was, even referring to him as "Slow-Dawg," a play on his "O-Dawg" nickname. This struck me as incredibly funny, since I saw Hudson a lot when we were both in Toronto, and he was never a plus runner, stealing 19 bases in three and a half years -- yet when he was on first base, pitchers would throw over to hold him with absurd frequency. And from talking to people with Arizona, I know they noticed the same phenomenon when Hudson played there. Unfortunately, I think the cause here is that Hudson looks the part of a speedy, low-power middle infielder, and scouts and coaches are making assumptions that just don't bear out in reality. He's not fast, he's never been fast, and anyone who files a report on him with a grade of 50 (average) or better for his running speed has made a bad evaluation.

[ChoneZone]

big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

Quick, name a MLB team that can't say exactly that...

There's a difference between a moderately realistic upside of a pitcher being above average, and crossing fingers hoping some scrub gains superpowers. There are plenty of MLB starters that no one expects or realistically hopes to be better than average (see Perkins, Glen). No one is going to be surprised if any one of Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Pavano, and Liriano has an above average season relative to their spots in the rotation. Its not out of any of their ability.

Sure, any rotation in MLB has a change at being the best 1-5, but the chances for the Twins is better than I think most people give them credit for.

[a-wan]

Only reason people thought Hudson was fast in the first place is because he's Black.

[DPJ]

Only reason people thought Hudson was fast in the first place is because he's Black.

No doubt, you would think of all people Keith would keep it real and just say it's cause he's black.

[snepp]

Only reason people thought Hudson was fast in the first place is because he's Black.

So you're saying he's not black?

[Nick N.]

By retaining Pavano and watching Fragile Frankie Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball.

That's some unexpectedly great praise for our rotation, although I wholeheartedly agree with it. I think people get too wrapped up in the disappointment of our rotation from last season and don't realize how high the ceiling can be for our pitching staff. Of course its certainly possible that the ghosts of the past can cause guys like Pavano and Liriano to stumble, but we've got some big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

I dunno, Blackburn's bust potential scares me and the Twins don't really have much in terms of quality depth. I'm nervous about the rotation. Rest of the team looks great though.

[kab21]

By retaining Pavano and watching Fragile Frankie Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball.

That's some unexpectedly great praise for our rotation, although I wholeheartedly agree with it. I think people get too wrapped up in the disappointment of our rotation from last season and don't realize how high the ceiling can be for our pitching staff. Of course its certainly possible that the ghosts of the past can cause guys like Pavano and Liriano to stumble, but we've got some big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

Pavano and Blackburn do not have upside.

[ChoneZone]

By retaining Pavano and watching Fragile Frankie Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball.

That's some unexpectedly great praise for our rotation, although I wholeheartedly agree with it. I think people get too wrapped up in the disappointment of our rotation from last season and don't realize how high the ceiling can be for our pitching staff. Of course its certainly possible that the ghosts of the past can cause guys like Pavano and Liriano to stumble, but we've got some big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

I dunno, Blackburn's bust potential scares me and the Twins don't really have much in terms of quality depth. I'm nervous about the rotation. Rest of the team looks great though.

The rotation is definitely the shakiest part of our team. I'm quite nervous too because it could go either way very easily, but I just think our staff has more potential to be top notch than people give them credit for.

[USAFChief]

What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time everyone was all exited about the rotation.

Basically everything that could go wrong with the rotation last year, did. And they still won the division.

Personally, I think they have enough starting pitching, particularly if Slowey proves to be healthy.

[Iastfan112]

By retaining Pavano and watching Fragile Frankie Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball.

That's some unexpectedly great praise for our rotation, although I wholeheartedly agree with it. I think people get too wrapped up in the disappointment of our rotation from last season and don't realize how high the ceiling can be for our pitching staff. Of course its certainly possible that the ghosts of the past can cause guys like Pavano and Liriano to stumble, but we've got some big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

I dunno, Blackburn's bust potential scares me and the Twins don't really have much in terms of quality depth. I'm nervous about the rotation. Rest of the team looks great though.

Why are you concerned about Blackburn busting out of curiousity? Ever since Blackburn lost weight/ recovered from injury his like has looked pretty solid, the past two were essentially identical. I'll fully admit I don't follow some of the saber stats like FIP closely, is there something in them that suggest possible regression?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure why anyone worries about blackburn. He's had two complete seasons and has put up nearly identical numbers in each one. They guy is a 200 inning workhorse that will given you an ERA a little below average. He isn't going to strike out tons of batters, but he will keep you in the game every day he pitches. The only thing to worry about him is an injury, which in all honesty is a worry you can have about any pitcher in baseball.

I have no idea if his build suggests he is or is not injury prone, but pitching nearly 200 innings his first year and 200 his next, I think his arm is quite capapble of handling that workload again.

Blackburn is the least of my worries. I'm far more worried about Pavano going down, Liriano becoming 2006 again and then having TJ again, or baker/slowey getting hurt. I think all of those are more likely options than blackburn getting hurt... Here's to hoping none of the other injuries happen. If they don't, we will make one nice run.

[kab21]

I'm not sure why anyone worries about blackburn. He's had two complete seasons and has put up nearly identical numbers in each one. They guy is a 200 inning workhorse that will given you an ERA a little below average. He isn't going to strike out tons of batters, but he will keep you in the game every day he pitches. The only thing to worry about him is an injury, which in all honesty is a worry you can have about any pitcher in baseball.

I have no idea if his build suggests he is or is not injury prone, but pitching nearly 200 innings his first year and 200 his next, I think his arm is quite capapble of handling that workload again.

Blackburn is the least of my worries. I'm far more worried about Pavano going down, Liriano becoming 2006 again and then having TJ again, or baker/slowey getting hurt. I think all of those are more likely options than blackburn getting hurt... Here's to hoping none of the other injuries happen. If they don't, we will make one nice run.

Blanton is one of Blackburn's closest comps

'05 - 3.53
'06 - 4.82
07 - 3.95
'08 - 4.69
'09 - 4.05

He's not one of my big worries but I have only disagreed that he has upside. And it wouldn't surprise me if had a 4.50+ ERA.

[Rocketpig]

I think we've seen Blackburn's upside. With that said, he's a very capable #4 if Francisco turns it around like we all hope he will. Who knows, Target Field and the imrpoved MI defense may even help him a bit (but he's not a radical groundball guy so the effect would be minimal).

[#1ShaneMackFan]

Here we go again with the complaints about Blackburn. I guess his actaul performance for two full seasons means nothing because a few stats claim he is not supposed to be that good.

Instead of waiting for him to be whatever it is you guys have been claiming he is for some time now, how about focusing on the fact that he has been our most reliable pitcher and come up huge time and again when necessary.

You can sit and stare at your "stats" and I'll just enjoy watching him pitch. Until he proves otherwise, he is about as solid a bet as we have in this rotation.

[VodkaDave]

Here we go again with the complaints about Blackburn. I guess his actaul performance for two full seasons means nothing because a few stats claim he is not supposed to be that good.

Instead of waiting for him to be whatever it is you guys have been claiming he is for some time now, how about focusing on the fact that he has been our most reliable pitcher and come up huge time and again when necessary.

You can sit and stare at your "stats" and I'll just enjoy watching him pitch. Until he proves otherwise, he is about as solid a bet as we have in this rotation.

+1

Blackburn is damn solid and about and is money in big games/situations.
Saying he has no upside is pretty dumb IMO, and anyone who only uses sabermetrics as a measure of a players value is foolish.
IMO Blackburn is a great #4 and would be a luxury to have him there and a pretty damn solid #3 (especially in the playoffs), for some reason he reminds me of Kevin Tappani, which isn't a bad thing at all!

[crapforks]

I agree with the Blackburn like-fest, but that wasn't the case in July or August. link. Some of those performances were just depressing.

[amjgt]

There's no doubt Blackburn laid a couple eggs toward the end of last year, but his last 5 starts of the season (including the playoff game), when it mattered most, he didn't give up more than 2 runs and went and average of 6-2/3.

I don't think anyone thinks he's the ace of a playoff staff, but there are A LOT worse #3 and #4 starters out there.

[snepp]

Saying he has no upside is pretty dumb IMO,

Why? Doesn't upside infer that there's potential for greater performance? We've seen what Blackburn is, without some kind of dramatic change in his repertoire, his "upside" is basically limited to what he already is.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Here we go again with the complaints about Blackburn. I guess his actaul performance for two full seasons means nothing because a few stats claim he is not supposed to be that good.

Instead of waiting for him to be whatever it is you guys have been claiming he is for some time now, how about focusing on the fact that he has been our most reliable pitcher and come up huge time and again when necessary.

You can sit and stare at your "stats" and I'll just enjoy watching him pitch. Until he proves otherwise, he is about as solid a bet as we have in this rotation.

I'm with you here. I'm not sure why he's not liked. I wouldn't call him a no upside guy either. He's probably hit his upside, or come quite close to it, but he's a reliable innings eater who will generally go about 7 innings and give up 3 runs. I'm not sure what there is not to like about a guy that can do that consistently when he starts. I don't expect him to ever win the Cy Young or anything, but he's a fine pitcher to have... and like others have said, the guy is money in big games. I have no idea why that is, but it's awesome...

[VodkaDave]

Saying he has no upside is pretty dumb IMO,

Why? Doesn't upside infer that there's potential for greater performance? We've seen what Blackburn is, without some kind of dramatic change in his repertoire, his "upside" is basically limited to what he already is.

He could become more consistent in his starts (He had a very poor July and a poor August last year) which could easily pop him down in the 3.50-3.75 range for a year long ERA. Also, he is going into only his third major league season, call me crazy but I am pretty sure many pitchers have improved quite a bit after there first two years.

Interesting stats:
In his 11 wins in 2009 his ERA was 1.70
In his 11 loses in 2009 his ERA was 7.52 (much of that was due to his bad two month run)
In his no decisions his ERA was 4.04


Im not saying he is going to be an ACE in this league, but to imply that he has already reached his peak and has no upside is just shortsighted and dumb IMO. Again, if he can be a little more consistent thoughout the year we could be talking about a guy with a 3.50 ERA and 15-17 wins. I'm pretty sure every team in this league would take that from a #3 any day, and certainly from a #4.

[Rocketpig]

Dave, the problem with your analysis is that guys who don't miss bats tend to get REALLY slapped around every so often, especially sinkballers because if the sinker isn't working, they generally become helpless on the mound because they rely on that sink to generate weak contact and if their secondary stuff was better, their K rate would reflect that.

Still, a small improvement is possible from Blackburn but I'd be floored if he ever posted a sub-4 ERA over a season.

[VodkaDave]

Dave, the problem with your analysis is that guys who don't miss bats tend to get REALLY slapped around every so often, especially sinkballers because if the sinker isn't working, they generally become helpless on the mound because they rely on that sink to generate weak contact and if their secondary stuff was better, their K rate would reflect that.

Still, a small improvement is possible from Blackburn but I'd be floored if he ever posted a sub-4 ERA over a season.

Blackburn has had a 4.05 (2008) and a 4.03 (2009) ERA the past two seasons...a small improvement would most likely give him a sub 4 ERA.

Just a random prediction, but I could see Blackburn being our version of the 1991 Kevin Tapani this year, who would then morph into Jack Morris once we make the World Series.

[Rocketpig]

Heh, fair enough. I'm on my phone and remembered his ERA being more around 4.3.

[VodkaDave]

Heh, fair enough. I'm on my phone and remembered his ERA being more around 4.3.

Makes sense, I could see how someone could make that mistake.

Also FWIW: He also had a 3.89 ERA away from the Dome last year,(he struggled significantly on the road his rookie season, which of course could be expected from a rookie pitcher) factor that in with the Twins improved INF defense and I think we could see Blackburn put up some very good numbers next year.

This Blackburn hate/ lack of respect around here is really puzzling to me.

[kab21]

Dave, the problem with your analysis is that guys who don't miss bats tend to get REALLY slapped around every so often, especially sinkballers because if the sinker isn't working, they generally become helpless on the mound because they rely on that sink to generate weak contact and if their secondary stuff was better, their K rate would reflect that.

Still, a small improvement is possible from Blackburn but I'd be floored if he ever posted a sub-4 ERA over a season.

Blackburn has had a 4.05 (2008) and a 4.03 (2009) ERA the past two seasons...a small improvement would most likely give him a sub 4 ERA.

Just a random prediction, but I could see Blackburn being our version of the 1991 Kevin Tapani this year, who would then morph into Jack Morris once we make the World Series.

I can see him see him with an ERA anywhere from 3.53-4.82 just like Blanton. It's good if you catch him on a good year and not so if catch him on down year. But he's great to have as a #4.

[snepp]

This Blackburn hate/ lack of respect around here is really puzzling to me.

You sure beat the shit out of that strawman didn't you?

[VodkaDave]

This Blackburn hate/ lack of respect around here is really puzzling to me.

You sure beat the shit out of that strawman didn't you?

[Rocketpig]

I don't get it either. I've always been a Blackburn supporter and think he's a real asset to the team. Shit, I think half this board wanted to lynch him last July and I never really understood it. Maybe it's a latent hatred of all things sinker after all those years of NBG.

Not sure if it was in this thread but I mentioned that I thought the MI grass and Target Field could give Nick a small stat bump.

[Iastfan112]

Dave, the problem with your analysis is that guys who don't miss bats tend to get REALLY slapped around every so often, especially sinkballers because if the sinker isn't working, they generally become helpless on the mound because they rely on that sink to generate weak contact and if their secondary stuff was better, their K rate would reflect that.

Still, a small improvement is possible from Blackburn but I'd be floored if he ever posted a sub-4 ERA over a season.

Blackburn has had a 4.05 (2008) and a 4.03 (2009) ERA the past two seasons...a small improvement would most likely give him a sub 4 ERA.

Just a random prediction, but I could see Blackburn being our version of the 1991 Kevin Tapani this year, who would then morph into Jack Morris once we make the World Series.

I can see him see him with an ERA anywhere from 3.53-4.82 just like Blanton. It's good if you catch him on a good year and not so if catch him on down year. But he's great to have as a #4.

But even a 4.8 era is fairly average for #4 if I recall correctly.

[kab21]

I don't get it either. I've always been a Blackburn supporter and think he's a real asset to the team. Shit, I think half this board wanted to lynch him last July and I never really understood it. Maybe it's a latent hatred of all things sinker after all those years of NBG.

Not sure if it was in this thread but I mentioned that I thought the MI grass and Target Field could give Nick a small stat bump.

You mean the thread where many considered him a 3.00 ERA pitcher and the various theories on why he was going to be the exception? How exactly did he do in the 2nd half?

He's a great asset to the team but he doesn't have much, if any upside.

[Nick N.]

Lord, I say Blackburn has "bust potential" and all of a sudden there's some enormous "hate" and "lack of respect" for the guy. Settle down.

Look, obviously Blackburn has been an asset for the Twins over the past few years. But it doesn't take a pedigreed sabermetrician to realize that someone who gives up a staggering number of hits (no AL pitcher gave up more than Blackburn last year), doesn't strike anybody out and doesn't induce a particularly high number of ground balls could be vulnerable to some tough times. If you don't believe that, check out Carlos Silva's 2006 season or Blackburn's stretch of 11 games from July 20 to Sept 11 last year in which he posted a 7.36 ERA and .356 BAA. The Twins went 2-9 during that span and were regularly put in deep holes because he was getting bashed around, so the notion that he "he will keep you in the game every day he pitches" is demonstrably false.

[Pseudofool]

Blackburn's stretch of 11 games from July 20 to Sept 11 last year in which he posted a 7.36 ERA and .356 BAA. The Twins went 2-9 during that span and were regularly put in deep holes because he was getting bashed around, so the notion that he "he will keep you in the game every day he pitches" is demonstrably false.

Oh, the arbitrary sample size argument. Boo-ya, take that guys. Conversely, if I ignore those 11 start, Blackburn is awesome-O! The fact that there's an eleven game stretch of horrible ineffectiveness, suggests that it probably isn't indicative of Blackburn typical pitching, and that there was something more going on, health-wise, head-wise, or mechanics-wise. That said, I really don't have a horse in this argument, as it's easy to buy into the no upside argument, which of course, doesn't suggest that Blackburn is bad or even liable to regress.

[Nick N.]

Oh, the arbitrary sample size argument. Boo-ya, take that guys. Conversely, if I ignore those 11 start, Blackburn is awesome-O! The fact that there's an eleven game stretch of horrible ineffectiveness, suggests that it probably isn't indicative of Blackburn typical pitching, and that there was something more going on, health-wise, head-wise, or mechanics-wise. That said, I really don't have a horse in this argument, as it's easy to buy into the no upside argument, which of course, doesn't suggest that Blackburn is bad or even liable to regress.

The point is that he fell apart for a period of time last year and couldn't seem to get himself right. When you read quotes from him during that period he seemed confused and frustrated because there was no injury or obvious mechanical issue -- he was just getting shellacked almost each time out. Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

[VodkaDave]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

[Nick N.]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

[VodkaDave]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

Silva became the piece of shit he is because he had a poor work ethic, was out of shape, and wouldn't listen to coaching. He also started giving up a ton of HR's something blackburn has yet to do.

[Nick N.]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

Silva became the piece of shit he is because he had a poor work ethic, was out of shape, and wouldn't listen to coaching. He also started giving up a ton of HR's something blackburn has yet to do.

Was he back in shape and listening to coaching again in 2007, when he had a fine season? Or does his fluctuation have a lot more to do with the fickle nature of contact pitchers with middling ground ball rates than with the gamut of manufactured excuses that you're regurgitating from who knows where?

[Pseudofool]

Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that eleven game streak could turn into the rest of his career, esp. considering he bounced back pretty thoroughly from that drought. Sure it's a possibility, but it's also a stretch that he ends up like Silva.

[edavis0308]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????
Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

Silva became the piece of shit he is because he had a poor work ethic, was out of shape, and wouldn't listen to coaching. He also started giving up a ton of HR's something blackburn has yet to do.

Was he back in shape and listening to coaching again in 2007, when he had a fine season? Or does his fluctuation have a lot more to do with the fickle nature of contact pitchers with middling ground ball rates than with the gamut of manufactured excuses that you're regurgitating from who knows where?

[Nick N.]

Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that eleven game streak could turn into the rest of his career, esp. considering he bounced back pretty thoroughly from that drought. Sure it's a possibility, but it's also a stretch that he ends up like Silva.

I'm not basing my concerns solely on that 11-game stretch, I'm simply pointing to it as an example of what can happen when things go wrong. Unless you believe that forcing batters to hit the ball directly at fielders is a consistently repeatable skill, you should share the same concerns. I do believe that Blackburn's pitches have enough movement that he's able to frequently induce weak contact, but it's naive to think that just because he's been solid over the first two years of his career he has nothing to worry about moving forward. Silva was solid in his first two years with the Twins as well.

[jewscott]

Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that eleven game streak could turn into the rest of his career, esp. considering he bounced back pretty thoroughly from that drought. Sure it's a possibility, but it's also a stretch that he ends up like Silva.

The bigger point to be learned from it is the same lesson that can be learned from Silva or Chien Ming Wang. When you're a one-pitch pitcher who rides a sinking fastball, the margin for error is ridiculously low. One little glitch in you shoulder that causes your fastball to come in at 89 instead of 91 is enough for a major league caliber hitter to be all over you.

[edavis0308]

Did my picture not work? Damn. I thought it worked well, too.

[TheLeviathan]

Did my picture not work? Damn. I thought it worked well, too.

What was it?

[a-wan]

Did my picture not work? Damn. I thought it worked well, too.

What was it?

A Silva-Blacky-Andy Eiffel Tower???