The Elephant in the room...

[Blahhh]

Pitching. Don't know which Liriano will show up, same thing with Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Pavano, and Blackburn. In the pen, will Mijares be obese when the season begins again and have to come down to merely fat to be effective again? Will mediocre middle-relief Guerrier come back this season, or will the Guerrier of last season show up? Rauch means smoke in German. Will Clay Condrey even make the team?. Color me skeptical about the whole pitching ship as a whole. It has holes and could right well sink. Anyone else in semi-agreement at least?

[Justanotherfan]

nope

[edavis0308]

You are obviously forgetting that a healthy Slowey and Neshek are just like making trades.

[crapforks]

I like the quantity of the arms the team currently has.

SP: Baker, Slowey, Liriano, Pavano, Blackburn, (Duensing, Manship, Perkins)- swingmen


RP: Nathan, Mijares, Matty G, Rauch, Crain, Neshek, Crain, etc.

The number of available arms makes me feel better if some starters get the five inning blues or if there's a stretch of games tat include a few blowouts. I feel that the Twins will have to hit their way to a title this season. All of the starters have upside, but none are going to be front-runners in CY predictions. If Having that kind of depth is nice -even with the swingmen being fairly unproven, if not just unlikely to put up replacement numbers.

On a related note, I think they will regret the Pavano signing. I have visions of a white Livan.

[VodkaDave]

On a related note, I think they will regret the Pavano signing. I have visions of a white Livan.

Why?

When healthy Pavano has proven to be a very capable starter.
After a horrendous start to the 2009 campaign (which was to be expeceted) he pitched pretty well. And his FIP indicates he pitched even better then his "regular" stats indicated.
He isn't going to be an all-start or anything, but I think he could give us about 200 IP with a 3.80-4.30 ERA.

[crapforks]

I'm truly not basing the Pavano comment on anything tangible. I just have this nagging feeling. I liked the way he pitched for the Twins, and it seemed that every start was huge, but the numbers you put up would be far surpassing expectations, IMO. I don't know why I am so down on him... but I really am.

And I forgot to list Swarzack as another swingman.

[howeda7]

The bullpen will be fine. The rotation certainly 'could' have issues, but it's not a given. I wouldn't mind signing Washburn on the cheap to give it another option though. Supposedy he will only play for the Brewers, Twins or Mariners. The Brewers are out, and the Mariners are about to sign Bedeard, so they'll be out too. Offer him $3 million and tell him to take it or leave it.

[alswearingen1]

I agree that pitching will be the reason if this team isn't successful. It almost always is the reason for disappointment. Saying that, I do agree that the Twins have a lot of options and it figures that some will succeed while others fail.

[DPJ]

I'm concerned about the pen, Guerrier and Mijares are sure for a massive regression based on their BABIP.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The starting rotation is fine

OK, had to say it.

We were all overly optimistic about the rotation last season, but I think this is a bit pessimistic this time around. Baker got off to a horrible start that he managed to figure out. There seemed to be a lot of speculation that his problems were nerves related, after just signing the big contract. Don't blame him. He settled in quite well. I would honestly expect that he starts the season much more modestly. Slowey was in the middle of a breakout season prior to getting hurt. He then got roughed up badly in his final couple of starts due to the injury. If he's healthy, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has that breakout season. Blackburn is blackburn. what you saw last year is probably what you'll get this year. It isn't great, but not exactly bad either. Pavano issue will be health. We all know he pitches well when healthy. If he is healthy, he could be as good as a low 4s pitcher, but more reasonably, he should be league average. The nice thing about Pavano is that you have Perkins, Duensing, and Swarzack who could all conceivably come in and be 5th starters if Pavano gets hurt.

Liriano is the elephant in the room. I think returning to 2008 form seems fairly reasonable if he's gotten beyond the mental things and has in fact added a few ticks to the fastball. Granted control was a big issue for him, but if he's throwing 93-94 as opposed to 91, then opposing hitters won't be as successful when they sit on the fastball. It will also make his change up a better pitch. If he's dialing it up higher, 2006 is a possibility (though I am not holding my breath).

I really think we have a 95 win team on our hands, and baring massive injuries, this team has a very good shot at winning it all.

[Dan]

On a related note, I think they will regret the Pavano signing. I have visions of a white Livan.

Why?

When healthy Pavano has proven to be a very capable starter.
After a horrendous start to the 2009 campaign (which was to be expeceted) he pitched pretty well. And his FIP indicates he pitched even better then his "regular" stats indicated.
He isn't going to be an all-start or anything, but I think he could give us about 200 IP with a 3.80-4.30 ERA.

you're couldn't be more wrong if you tried. unless Target Field is an extreme pitchers park, which seems doubtful, Pavano's career AL numbers are an era over 5, and whip over 1.20. there is nothing that points to him having a good year. white Livan is the right label.

[torii_hunter_mvp]

isnt the elephant in the room the fact that Mega-Hunk Joe Mauer needs to be locked up long term? that seems like a more pressing need than the starting pitching right now

[VodkaDave]

there is nothing that points to him having a good year. white Livan is the right label.

How about his numbers after April last year?

[Great Canadian Twins Fan]

Judging by the title of this thread I had assumed the Twins were bringing back Ponson or Silva.

[edavis0308]

there is nothing that points to him having a good year. white Livan is the right label.

How about his numbers after April last year?

Silly Dave, those numbers don't count.

[StatFreak101]

isnt the elephant in the room the fact that Mega-Hunk Joe Mauer needs to be locked up long term? that seems like a more pressing need than the starting pitching right now

I kind of agree here.

With that said, barring any significant injuries that could derail the Twins offense, the pitching staff will be the determining factor as to just how successful this baseball team is.

[alswearingen1]

isnt the elephant in the room the fact that Mega-Hunk Joe Mauer needs to be locked up long term? that seems like a more pressing need than the starting pitching right now

I guess most of us (myself included) believe that the extension is all but done. "It's never over until it's over" rings through my ears, but I believe Rosen is right and the framework to the extension is completed.

[Etspaceman]

I mean, it's cool that the Twins are getting offensive producers... but the offense sure as hell wasn't the Twins' Achilles heal last year. The bullpen has been, and is an extremely pressing need that must be solved if the Twins are going to think about contending this year.

[crapforks]

I mean, it's cool that the Twins are getting offensive producers... but the offense sure as hell wasn't the Twins' Achilles heal last year. The bullpen has been, and is an extremely pressing need that must be solved if the Twins are going to think about contending this year.

Rauch is no savior, but him, 2nd half Crain, along with the possibility of a healthy Neshek is promising. I'm sure that someone will fall off from where we fans expect, but middle relief is something that should be addressed by the minor league system.

I still hate that the team feels the need to bring up a career minor league starter to patch bullpen holes.

[Etspaceman]

I mean, it's cool that the Twins are getting offensive producers... but the offense sure as hell wasn't the Twins' Achilles heal last year. The bullpen has been, and is an extremely pressing need that must be solved if the Twins are going to think about contending this year.

Rauch is no savior, but him, 2nd half Crain, along with the possibility of a healthy Neshek is promising. I'm sure that someone will fall off from where we fans expect, but middle relief is something that should be addressed by the minor league system.

I still hate that the team feels the need to bring up a career minor league starter to patch bullpen holes.

At this point, Crain shouldn't be considered as a solid option out of the bullpen. Sure, he had a nice post-all star run, but he has shown no signs of consistency in his recent years, and his "stuff" just hasn't been very dominating since his rookie campaign. Relying on someone as inconsistent as him in the bullpen is not a smart move. Neshek? Are you really going to count on a player that has had as many surgeries, and missed as many games as him? If you think Liriano took a hit after his Tommy John...

I guess my main point is: the bullpen was wretched last year, no matter how you sugar-coat it. Hoping that your players are going to get better, or that past injuries won't affect the pitcher's performance isn't a reliable option. The Twins need to find some level of consistency outside of Nathan.

[Pseudofool]

The bullpen has improved since last year.

Rauch and Codrey are better pitchers than the ones they replace, and if we get anything from Neshek (or even Crain) we'll be siting pretty. Not mention the depth in the minors that damn-well ought to be ready by now.

[Rocketpig]

I'm not too worried about the 'pen. Yes, it could blow up... just like everything else on the team. As it sits now, it's in decent shape with Guerrier, Rauch, and Nathan. If Crain and/or Neshek contribute, the bullpen will be just fine if not outstanding.

[Etspaceman]

I'm not too worried about the 'pen. Yes, it could blow up... just like everything else on the team. As it sits now, it's in decent shape with Guerrier, Rauch, and Nathan. If Crain and/or Neshek contribute, the bullpen will be just fine if not outstanding.

That's a pretty big if though. We said the same thing last year about Ayalla and Crain, did we not?

[Klobs]

I'm not too worried about the 'pen. Yes, it could blow up... just like everything else on the team. As it sits now, it's in decent shape with Guerrier, Rauch, and Nathan. If Crain and/or Neshek contribute, the bullpen will be just fine if not outstanding.

That's a pretty big if though. We said the same thing last year about Ayalla and Crain, did we not?

Who is "we."

[Etspaceman]

I'm not too worried about the 'pen. Yes, it could blow up... just like everything else on the team. As it sits now, it's in decent shape with Guerrier, Rauch, and Nathan. If Crain and/or Neshek contribute, the bullpen will be just fine if not outstanding.

That's a pretty big if though. We said the same thing last year about Ayalla and Crain, did we not?

Who is "we."

I guess I don't recall many that were entirely worried about the bullpen before the season started last year.

[Pseudofool]

I'm not too worried about the 'pen. Yes, it could blow up... just like everything else on the team. As it sits now, it's in decent shape with Guerrier, Rauch, and Nathan. If Crain and/or Neshek contribute, the bullpen will be just fine if not outstanding.

That's a pretty big if though. We said the same thing last year about Ayalla and Crain, did we not?

No, it's a pretty small "if" given how much better depth we have.

[Klobs]

I guess I don't recall many that were entirely worried about the bullpen before the season started last year.

You're right, I remember everyone being very excited about Luis Ayala.

[Rocketpig]

Dunno whose posts you were reading but I was in a panic over the pen before last season and thought it was the biggest weakness of the team.

[FrodaddyG]

Dunno whose posts you were reading but I was in a panic over the pen before last season and thought it was the biggest weakness of the team.

I guess I wasn't worried since I knew "Mr. 163" Hard-throwin' Bobby Keppel was a phone call away if one of the relievers went south.

[VodkaDave]

As I recall we were all panicked about the bullpen going into last year.

Everyone thought Guerrier was worn down and due for a big regression.
Mijares was scarffing down 20 Twinkies an hour at this team last year, and was questionable if he'd even be on the opening day roster.
Neshek was done for the year and nobody trusted Crain.
Also, there was little to no confidence in Humber, Mulvey or Duensing.

The only one some people were happy about was R.A. Dickey for some reason...