Community Twins Player Rankings: #1 Harmon Killebrew

The swing that launched a thousand logos…and 573 homeruns

Three interesting facts about Harmon Killebrew:

1. Killebrew is far and away baseball’s premier Mormon slugger, with 573 homeruns. Dale Murphy is second at 398 and Jeff Kent is third at 377. The active leader, Bobby Crosby , is light years away at 58, so it looks like Killebrew will hold this mark for years to come. (The Twins probably have had more of an impact from players of the LDS faith than any other team, with Rick Aguilera and Jack Morris both being BYU alums and firm believers in the Book of Mormon.)

2. At the Mall of America, there are only two clues inside that let you know that Metropolitan Stadium once stood on the same site. First is a marker that lets you know where home plate is. Second, are two seats painted red, hanging in the air about 520 feet from home plate. These chairs denote the longest homerun hit at old Met Stadium off the bat of one Harmon Killebrew.

3. Everyone knows that Jerry West is the player silhouetted in the NBA logo. Who is the player shown in the MLB logo? Urban legend states that it’s Harmon Killebrew.

ESPN.com recently ran an article that attempted to debunk this myth. In the end, the designer stated that the piece was a composite of several photographs, and doesn’t know if Killebrew’s was one of those used. So the answer is that we’ll never know the true answer. We can, however, verify the source of the rumor. It comes from Killebrew himself. Stealing a quote from the same article:

“I was in the commissioner’s office one day in the late 1960s. I can’t remember the specifics, but I think it had something to do with a litho they were doing for the National Kidney Foundation. Anyway, I walked through the back part of the office, and there was a man sitting at a table. He had a photograph of me in a hitting position, and he had one of those grease pencils that you see at a newspaper, and he was marking that thing up. I said, ‘What are you doing with that?’ and he said they were going to make a new Major League Baseball logo. I never thought any more about it. And then the logo came out and it did look like me. The only change was the angle of the bat—they changed that to kind of make it fit more into the design.”

The article also revealed that Killebrew was the model in another MLB logo, the one used by the MLB Player Alumni Association.  Which is nice, but it’s not the main Major League Baseball logo. There’s no way of knowing what the truth is. And the reality is that defeats the purpose of the logo. Much like the iPod commercials of today, the purpose of leaving a blank space in a logo is to give the next kid out there the chance that it’s him.

However, it would make sense at the time if it was Killebrew being used. In 1969, when the new MLB logo was released, it was Killebrew, not Hank Aaron, considered to have the best chance of passing Babe Ruth’s 714 homerun. Injuries during some of his prime years (1960, 1965 and 1968) and a career that went into a tailspin after his age-35 season in 1971. When healthy though between 1959 and 1971, he was about as close to a mortal lock for 40 homeruns as possible—especially impressive in baseball’s second dead ball era where 30 was a major accomplishment and 20+ homers were usually good enough to get you ranked in the AL top ten.  Killebrew was also known for his patient approach at the plate and his career .373 OBP is very impressive.

Killebrew wasn’t without his nits though as a player, defense being the prime concern. He came up as a second baseman, then moved to third, left, first, back to third before finally settling in and becoming a decent defensive first baseman. The other major nit against Killebrew was his batting average. Killebrew’s .256 career mark is ahead of only light-hitting Chicago White Sox catcher Ray Schalk among HOF position players. These two factors played a key factor in keeping Killebrew out of the Hall of Fame on his first three ballots, receiving 59.6%, 59.3% and 71.9% before finally crossing the required 75% (83.1%, to be precise) in 1984.

Killebrew’s contributions to Twins’ baseball are undeniable though.  Of the top ten season homerun totals in franchise history, he holds 9 of the marks (with Roy Sievers holding 7th place and being tied for 10th), along with the franchise high total for career slugging percentage. He and Eddie Yost, the man he replaced at third base, are the only names on the franchise’s all-time single season walk leaderboard, as well. Killebrew is far and away the Twins’ leading all-time slugger, and a fine choice for the top-player in franchise history.

And, to be featured in any logo that baseball has to offer.

Twins’ Top Players Community Ranking Project results:

1. Harmon Killebrew

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by jewscott on 07/02 at 04:58 PM
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Token Draft Blog

Here’s a look at the Twins’ first day choices

1. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
1s. Matt Bashore, LHP. Indiana
2. Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida
3. Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State

The plan going in? “We need velocity,”—Twins Scouting Director Deron Johnson before the draft. Yeah, that leaves out the middle infielders and power hitters. But in the end, the one thing the Twins’ farm system was really missing was guys who could dial up velocity and blow the ball by hitters.

So, with the first pick, the Twins of course took Kyle Gibson, a 6’6” pitcher from Missouri with a, um, 90 mile an hour fastball. Gibson fell to the Twins at 22 because of a stress fracture in his arm. He was a top ten talent in the draft, though in a deeper draft 22 sounds more realistic for him. Gibson does the one thing the Twins expect in a pitcher though—he throws strikes and only walked 19 in 106+ innings this year. He also struck out 131, mostly with a decent slider that’s tough on righties and not so tough on lefties. The book is split on his change, with some people liking it and some people thinking it needs work. Providing the injury proves to be nothing, Gibson should be a decent bet to fill in the back of the rotation, and his stuff and command is very similar to Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey when they were draft picks. The problem is the Twins really needed a pitcher who could slot above Slowey and Baker in the rotation come 2012 or so. The upside to Gibson is that he’s a rail thin 6’6”, and as he fills out hopefully the consistent 88-91 will turn into a consistent 92-93. If that happens look out, though people have been waiting on Gibson to add velocity since his freshman year at Missouri and it hasn’t happened yet.

With the supplemental pick, the Twins grabbed Indiana University LHP Matt Bashore. His velocity sits 90-91 mph with good movement and the occasional 95 mile pitch thrown in for fun. He does so with a fairly smooth delivery. The nits on Bashore are that his control can come and go and his secondary offerings are inconsistent, meaning he probably won’t move quickly. His stuff is a little reminiscent of former Twin Eric Milton, though it will take improvements to reach an All-Star Game like Milton did. But if things don’t work out, lefties with Bashore’s velocity always get a shot in the bullpen.

In the second and third rounds, that’s where the velocity portion kicked in. Both Tootle and Bullock can dial up high-90s heat and were mentioned as first round possibilities, though they tend to do better as relievers than as starters. Bullock has a little more heat, but Tootle’s curveball may be the best secondary pitch of the four pitchers who joined the organization today and is a little more likely to be a starter than Bullock. Control isn’t either of their things though, and Bullock has been homer prone this spring at Florida.

It’s not the kind of draft where you can say without a doubt what is going to happen. But those kind of drafts are hard to achieve when you’re picking 22nd overall. Some of these pieces will succeed. Telling which ones they are right now though, well, that’s a little difficult.

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by jewscott on 06/10 at 12:21 AM
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Easy Answers

It’s the beginning of the new month—a time when blogs like to go back through the events of the past month and talk about the negatives. A lot has been said about the Twins wasting the best month of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s careers by posting a 14-16 record. Patrick Reusse had a piece about how the road portion of the schedule starts now, though I can’t imagine that’s going to be a lot tougher than facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Devil Rays in quick succession. More than anything, we’ve reached the point in time where the Backseat GMs, of which I am a card-carrying member, are crying out for improvements.

I’ve never been shy about speaking my mind for roster changes. This year? It’s a little different.

Jim Souhan had an idea that Anthony Swarzak should replace Francisco Liriano in the rotation should the lefty’s struggles continue. Which works in the fact that Liriano has been really bad of late. It also takes out of the equation what Liriano may do in July and down the road and that Swarzak is a pitcher who sits 91-92 with middling control and no out pitches, a puzzle that’s not exactly the New York Times Crosswords in terms of difficulty for major league hitters to figure out

Further down the road in Strib-land, Howard Sinker wrote in a recent blog that if he were Gardenhire he would “call Brendan Harris into his office and say, ‘Brendan, you’re my starting shortstop.’” In theory again, it works. So far this year, Nick Punto has done the impossible in dethroning Houston Jimenez from his title of “Worst Performance by a Twins Starting Shortstop in a Potential Playoff Year.” At the same time, Brendan Harris is such a butcher with the leather at shortstop, so much so that Jason Bartlett was named Tampa Bay’s MVP last year because he wasn’t Harris defensively.

I won’t even get into the 900-pound gorilla debate over which 23-year-old outfielder Twins fan prefer. Which brings me to the point at hand: the real problem with playing Backseat GM in 2009 is that there really are no black and white issues. In past years, decisions to toss Tony Batista, Rondell White, Juan Castro, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez and so forth to the curb were no-brainers. Further to the point, there isn’t a Jason Bartlett or a Francisco Liriano posting lights out numbers that help make the decision even easier.

Being into the Twins lately has kind of been a Democrat vs. Republican issue. This year, the issues have been more purple than blue versus red. Whatever you’re making a case for, unless it’s something crazy like calling up Aaron Hicks to solve the outfield problem, you may well be right. But you may well be wrong, too. Liriano could right himself to 2008 standards or continue to fall apart. Swarzak may well have enough to keep fooling people, or he may get shelled in consecutive starts. All we really know right now is two things:

A) This is a pretty good, but far from great, Twins team, and;

B) There are no easy solutions to fixing what’s wrong.

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by jewscott on 06/02 at 02:47 PM
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Free Carlos Gomez. Any takers?

I kid.  However, a certain blogger who shall remain nameless broke out the “Free Carlos Gomez”  bandwagon. And god, the Free Anyone movement has become such a cliché that it deserves be endlessly mocked whenever it’s brought out, especially when it’s brought out for a centerfielder with a career OPB well under .300.

In general, I don’t think the argument is too ridiculous. Gomez is better than Span in centerfield. Span is better than Young is in left. Young isn’t Manny with the bat. The real problem though is that choosing between Young and Gomez is like choosing between the Thai prostitute with Syphilis and the Thai prostitute with Herpes. Neither one is really a favorable outcome. Given that Young has spent the last couple of weeks slowly raising his batting average from bad to where you expect it to normally be (hitting .333 over the last two weeks) is it really that surprising that Gardenhire has been riding the hot hand? If hits start falling for Gomez (and in theory, at some point in time they should),  it should be expected that he gets more starts.

Just for fun, here’s a look at Young, Gomez, Span and a super secret behind door mystery player so far in 2009. For defensive metrics, I used The Hardball Times RZR and Fangraph’s UZR/150, just because this early in the season defensive metrics are flighty at best.

Player     OBP   SLG   SB   RC/27     CFRZR     LFRZR   CFUZR/150 LFUZR/150
Span     .371   .369     7     5.57       .968       .917       -25.1         39.2      
Young     .333   .338     2     3.08                   .843                     -28.1
Gomez     .259   .327     2     2.28       .974                     35.5      
Player X   .389   .355     12     6.81                   .817                       3.0
Player Y     .451   .660     0   10.51                   .696                       -40.5
Player Z     .342   .529     0     6.49                   1.000                     -11.0

From the named player perspective, nothing is really that surprising. The best three players on the board from an offensive perspective are the unnamed ones. Each one has legitimate questions about their defense, but all are double over Young in terms of RC/27 with one providing more than triple the offense that Young provides with the same defensive liabilities. 

Players X and Y are notable because certain Twins bloggers pooh-pooed the idea of signing them. X is Bobby Abreu. Y is Adam Dunn. Unlike Orlando Hudson, neither would’ve cost a first round pick to sign and both would have been upgrades. You can argue that Hudson might have made more sense because of his defense. But then again, the Twins don’t have a Brendan Harris lying around as a back-up at second base either. Or do they?

Player Z is notable because he is a realistic option for more playing time in left field, since he’s current Twins DH Jason Kubel. Assuming Mauer doesn’t go 100 at-bats without another homerun and there’s something of a power spike coming from him in 2009, the dilemma the team is going to face is that neither Gomez nor Young drive the team toward competing. The high minors are bereft of capable corner outfielders, so at some point the Twins are going to face a question of how do they get more production than either Gomez or Young can provide. There are questions about moving Kubel back to left field, namely can his knee hold up well enough to field a position without affecting his bat and can they find a decent DH (Huber would seem to be the only realistic internal hope) replacement.

The Twins are 3 games back of the Tigers and Royals. Nothing that can’t be made up. But given Zach Greinke seems to be channeling Greg Maddux and Miguel Cabrera may be the best hitter in the AL, it may prove hard to do that while trying to develop Young and/or Gomez. The Twins may face a big decision. Do they play to win now or in 2010 and beyond?   

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by jewscott on 05/11 at 12:08 PM
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Three Thoughts: The Opening Day Edition

● When Someone is Right, Admit It:Two of the most maligned people on the boards at BYTO are Ron Gardenhire and Michael Cuddyer. Both of them deserve credit for their performances yesterday—Cuddyer for driving in the Twins only run and Gardenhire for making the difficult decision to bat Cuddyer third. The knock against Gardenhire (at least my main knock against him) is that he’s more a players’ manager and not really all into that strategy nonsense. Then again, when the Twins have scored runs in the past there’s a very clear formula for it. Load up the guys heavy in on-base percentage and put them in front of the biggest bat the team has, Justin Morneau. When the offense has really worked in the past, Morneau has had, in no certain order, Joe Mauer, Luis Castillo, Nick Punto, Denard Span and the much-maligned Cuddyer in front of him. All of them have one thing in common, they work counts and get on base. It shouldn’t really be all that surprising that Morneau came up to the plate with the most chances to drive in runners in 2006 and 2008. Odds are, you aren’t going to see as many ducks on the pond with an OBP hole like Carlos Gomez or even Tony Batista in front of you. This is the purpose Cuddyer is going to serve while hitting in the #3 hole for the team while Mauer nurses his back injury. He needs to be in the line-up whenever there’s stuff-heavy pitcher who you need to take pitches to beat, a lefthanded pitcher, or like Seattle’s starter tonight Erik Bedard, all of the above on the mound.

● Killing Your Babies:You don’t like to have to choose one of Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez to sit on the bench. Both of them have upsides, and sitting on the bench probably isn’t going to help the two become the players we all hope they become. But the reality is Span and Cuddyer are better hitters when they’re going right, and if the goal is to win this season, they need at-bats. And most nights, that’s going to mean choosing between Gomez and Young for the unfortunate role of riding the pine. Tonight, however, is probably one of the better situations to run out both of them given Kubel probably shouldn’t be in the lineup versus a lefty. A good lineup versus Bedard might be something like:

Span LF
Casilla 2B
Cuddyer RF
Morneau 1B
Young DH
Crede 3B
Gomez CF
Redmond/Morales C
Punto SS

● Fear: Unfortunately, each start that Francisco Liriano makes, he takes a step further and further away from the fire-breathing, indestructible monster and closer to becoming the next Bird Fidrich. I guess that’s the argument that needs to be made any time somebody says that Tommy John Surgery is becoming less and less of a big deal.

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by jewscott on 04/07 at 09:29 AM
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Spring Training

  Relevant or not? I haven’t seen a single Spring Training game, but have followed on the internet and read comments to gauge how things are going. With only a week left, we should see starters going deeper into pitch counts and regulars getting more playing time. By now the magic of baseball is back in our minds, and many are ready to be done with this month of baseball that is more dedicated to sun-bathing and the once vibrant Florida night life. For the Twins, they get to come back home to an even more fridged night life to accompany temperatures that are hovering around freezing, what motivation. A common mistake by the common fan is to judge how a player’s season is going to turn out by the results in spring training. Any elitist might tell you it is a worthless month of baseball, but is it really? It seems managers like to put some weight on results when deciding on who wins a starting position. Every year this happens, and this year a big change was in our favorite NYY for the CF spot. Gardner won the spot and sent the former alleged center-piece of a Johan Santana deal, Cabrera, down to AAA. So for some, this part of the season matters. Let me just highlight some of my man-crush spring training Twins-related snippets. 

1. Punto vs. Tolbert.
  Tell me why Punto was named outright SS already? Defense? Both have had decent ST results, but Tolbert has twice the AB’s and a very good BB ratio (which is more important than AVG in ST IMO). I’m not a big Tolbert fan (which none of us are), but I think he might be a better option for an everyday player than the Poon. Then again, I’m sure Gardy will put Tolbert and his brilliant show of power this spring at SS plenty this season. Of course, that head-first slide gives the Poon a lead in scrappiness. At least we know going into the season that whoever is at SS is going to battle their tail off.

2. BB/K ratio.
  From a glance at the stats it seems every player has shown good patience at the plate. Except Delmon Young, who hasn’t walked once, yet has K’d 10 times in 61 AB’s. Don’t be too encouraged by his SLUG, because if he ever wants to get better he needs to stop swinging at balls outside the zone. I am under the impression he will struggle this year and lose his spot to Span. That said, its nice to see a lot of BB’s in the stat column for the twins.

3. Gomez/Kubel/Cuddy.
  Is it real or just sample size? All 3 have stat lines that put them in the Hall of Fame this spring, so obviously they aren’t going to look like that in the season. But has Gomez taken great strides to using his talent? Has Kubel finally shaken the rust off to be the player we were expecting? Is Cuddy going to repeat 2006? The other possibility…. dun da dun…. is that a lot of pitchers are throwing fast-balls and these 3 tend to hit fast-balls well. Only the season will unfold the real truth, especially since we’re trying to make squeeze a melon out of a lime.

4. Young guys.
  Winfree .367/.533, Peterson .292/500, Hughes .429/.429, Martin .421/.526, Ramos .375/.500, and Valencia .429/.429 all had great results (most in brief stints). I think this is great for the young guys to come up and have success for players and Gardy (since he hates young people that aren’t dark and intimidating see Delmon Young vs. Jason Bartlett). I would be more enthusiastic about these results, but Ramos is the only one who showed any plate discipline with a 1:1 ratio. Its too bad I didn’t get to see the young guys play, since like many, I watch their stats all year and don’t get faces to put with the numbers. If only life was simpler, we’d all get to go down to Florida and rub shoulders with guys like Jayson Stark…... dreammm weaaava….

5. Pitching
  Perkins is our #1, followed by Blackburn, Slowey, Liriano and then Baker (lucky to break camp but has veteran presence now over everyone else). Ok, I’ll step out of Gardy’s world. If anything, it is encouraging to see Perkins throw well, even though this IS spring training, and Ramon Ortiz had a great spring a few years ago. Its a little tougher to look at a pitcher’s stats than hitter’s and try to make any assumptions. Pitchers tend to “work on” a lot of things, in other words they didn’t stay in very good shape and are trying to repeat a delivery. That’s fine, doesn’t bother me, just that I barely sneeze when a pitcher like Perkins has a good spring. What is a little on the B-Line is Scott Baker’s shaky spring. I’d like to see a little more progress from the guy that is supposed to be our rock for the year, but it’s only spring training right?

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by BadSmerf on 03/30 at 07:08 PM
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BYTO Presents: Pat Neshek!

Minnesota Twins’ reliever Pat Neshek recently took some time to answer a few questions submitted by BYTO users. Neshek, a graduate of Park Center High School in Brooklyn Park, is currently rehabbing after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late 2008. He is known for his unusual delivery, vegetarianism, and his personal blog focusing on his career and passion for sports autographs.

BYTO: Where are you in your rehab?

Pat Neshek: Four months in, I’m about to begin the initial throwing phase which consist of throwing from 20-30 and 40 feet…My first bullpen is in September so you can get the feeling that it’s a slow process.

BYTO: When can we expect to see you whipping sidearm sliders and embarrassing right-handed hitters?

Pat Neshek: Most likely in Winter ball 2010 or in spring training…If you can’t wait pick up a PS3 or Wii console and run me out there!

BYTO: Taking money out of the equation, would you want to be a closer?

Pat Neshek: It’s not a goal or anything like that but I think I would do a good job in that role. I did it in the minors at every level and had success and I it was a ton of pressure but I think that’s when I do my best.

BYTO: Do you think that the best reliever on a team should be deployed in the structured manner that most managers stick to?

Pat Neshek: I think MLB closers should be expected to go 1.1, 1.2 & 2 innings a lot more, In the minors that’s how nearly every team did it and in the Majors I think it would benefit more teams if they used the closer in this fashion.

BYTO: That first big league check came. What did you purchase with it?

Pat Neshek: I was under the impression that I was making 1/13 (paid 13 times during the season) of 327,000 (minor league min in 06) which would = around 25,000…that was the case but I totally didn’t understand that taxes took about 1/2 and then there were tons of other expenses like clubhouse dues, mlbpa dues, tickets, that I left, soc security ect…I think my first check was for $10,500…I think I was the most pissed of guy in the clubhouse because I was expecting 30,000 haha…that brings up the next questions my first purchase was our house in Brooklyn Park. I wanted to put a lot of money down and I had some of my signing bonus from the 02 draft still so I figured to add that with the 25k…well I had to wait until my next check to get all the cash for the down payment…I just expected the checks to be around 30k a check…not even close haha.

BYTO: How much can Rick Anderson actually work with you, given your unusual delivery?

Pat Neshek: In 06 he really just let me pitch and didn’t say a word to me. Around mid 07 he saw me enough to know if I’m doing something that I usually don’t do. I’m a very independent pitcher and don’t like being molded into something if you guys can’t tell by my delivery so the less work with pitching coaches for me is usually good. Rick Anderson has helped me a lot though with my changeup & if I’m rushing or not letting my slider get out in front of me.

BYTO: Being one of the most internet-visible of the Twins, do you have any good stories involving web stalkers or general creepiness?

Pat Neshek: Hmmm not really, most people are really cool…a lot cooler than I would’ve ever imagined. I met Stephanee through my site in 2004 believe it or not…made a ton of friends with it but the creepiness just hasn’t been there much. We have an MLB security team to help out if any problems with any @$$holes come up & I used them to shut down a couple fakers using my name on Myspace & facebook but that’s about it.

BYTO: How many pitches can you see yourself realistically throwing in a game? Is there a cut-off on how many pitches you can throw before it impacts your availability for the next day?

Pat Neshek: Well in college I had 8 CGs and I threw 186 in my final college game a 1-0 9 inning shutout. I’m pretty durable if I get the right amount of rest, if I don’t get the day off every 3rd day I tend to break down. In the bigs they tend to watch relievers and pitch counts…If you throw under ten or around that mark you are good the next day. Around 15 is when they ask if you are good and over 20+ usually requires an off day. I’m good 2 out of 3 days but like I said above I need that 3rd day to do nothing…I thought my arm could take it because I was abused in the minors throwing everyday but it caught up to my elbow last year.

BYTO: You’re on the mound. Which hitter that you are facing makes you the most nervous?

Pat Neshek: A little slap hitting lefty that doesn’t k & is looking to slap to left or a righty that doesn’t k & that’s looking to shoot something to right field…The minor leagues are littered with those guys and in the big leagues it seems like they like Power so those guys never make it up.

BYTO: Just how dreamy is Joe Mauer in real life? Do you often get lost in his eyes when looking in from the mound?

Pat Neshek: You guy’s are sick…just sick. Interview over…jk He’s really quiet & a humble guy in real life…if he stays healthy he’s a def HOFer when his days are over.

BYTO: We know that you are a vegetarian, but have you ever fallen into the temptation of a juicy burger or a steak on a long road trip?

Pat Neshek: I haven’t had meat in nearly 14 months right now & I can live without meat for the rest of my life. It was tough at first but I never was a huge fan in the first place. I’ve actually pushed it one step ahead of no meat but no dairy like cheese, milk and all that stuff and also did that for about 14 months. I’ve had about 7-10 days though where there was nothing open and I had a cheese pizza. Availability of the stuff I eat is tough to find and you really need to plan ahead stuff to bring or places to eat.

BYTO: Which Twins’ reliever do feel battles his tail off the most?

Pat Neshek: I don’t know I would have to make a formula for tail battling…probably something that includes avg. with runners on…K’s in big situations and inherited runners stranded. I’m not sure who did the best last year in those categories but that would be my pick.

We would like to thank Pat for his answers and our posters for submitting the questions. Please visit Pat’s blog, “On the Road with Pat Neshek.”

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by Klobs on 03/18 at 10:13 AM
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Opening Day Lineup Homunculi

As you can see, and as you'd probably imagine if you think about it, your fingertips and hands are the most sensitive parts of our body, your mouth and lips and tongue are also very sensitive, and things like your back and legs are the least sensitive. Think about how a tiny paper-cut on your finger tip hurts like hell while it'd take a big gash down the back of your leg to hurt as much. Anyways... what does this have to do with Twins baseball?

Well, maybe we can we look at the opening day lineup in a similar way? We can try; judge for yourself how useful you find the images below. To try to make some homunculi to represent the strengths and weaknesses of the guys we've got in our lineup I made this complicated-ass spreadsheet that took all the plate appearances for the players who I think we can expect to see in the starting line-up on opening day from any time they spent at AA, AAA and MLB and weighted them for the level at which they were. I didn't include Rookie or any type of A ball or College or foreign play since all that stuff is very difficult to figure out the value of; frankly I only used high minor league data since for players like Gomez and Casilla and Span, if you don't, you end up with barely any information you couldn't chalk up to random variation in a player's performance in a given year or sheer dumb luck last year.

After compiling the stats from The Baseball Cube, I then picked 5 factors representing a player's strengths and weaknesses to draw a Twins Homunculus, as well as how much experience a player has to include as a visual cue to whether the picture I drew comes from a guy who's played enough, especially in MLB, to establish that his average performance truly represents something about how good he is at various skills. The five skills I decided to pick were: how good a fielder a guy is; how well he hits for average; how well he hits for power as represented by his isolated power numbers (SLG-BA); how good he is at drawing walks and/or getting himself hit by pitches, which you could call a proxy for plate discipline (OBP-BA) and finally how good he is overall using OPS. How much experience they had was also used to modify the image if they are relative newbies... if they have less than 3000 weighted plate appearances then the player's experience is used to alter the images.

Then, I took the raw numbers (BA, OBP-BA, SLG-BA, etc.) and used them to compare how each guy in this lineup stacks up to the others (a guy who was exactly average for this line-up would look like the unmodified image) and basically arbitrarily generated numbers that were around one and had a range of about .5 to 1.5 to use to scale different parts of the player by those amounts (basically using any formula that gave a reasonable scalar) and then used a script in Photoshop to modify certain attributes of the image. The ways that the above mentioned attributes were used to generate a homunculus are as follows: his batting average made his protruding arm (on the right side of the image) bigger or smaller; his ability to hit for power was used to scale the bat he's holding; his plage discipline scaled his head; his fielding scaled his glove (and for Punto I made it look like he was holding it effeminately); and then finally, to give an overall judgment on the fielder, after those parts were scaled relatively, the homunculus was scaled once more so that the player as a whole would appear larger or smaller based on his OPS. If a guy was relatively inexperienced as defined above then he was made slightly less opaque so that he appears somewhat ephemeral... which is sort of a good way to think of these young kids who may or may not be the player their homunculus represents and who might not be in the line-up or even on the 25-man roster all year.

So, here's what I assume Gardy's going to put out on the field to start the year: Span, Casilla, Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, Crede, Kubel/Young, Punto, Gomez. Now, I don't know what he thinks of Crede versus Kubel and who he'll put higher up in the order, and if the value he puts on having righties hit after lefties will make him put Crede in front of Kubel for that purpose even if their raw numbers would tell you to put the guys in the other order. Also, this is assuming that he thinks Cuddyer is the same player he was in '06 and '07; I don't think he will be and I wouldn't bat him 4th, but what the hell do I know about veteran presence. I'd put Mauer second in the order with Cuddyer hitting more like 6th, Casilla hitting 7th and everybody else just bumped up, but it doesn't really matter, it's pretty clear that these guys will be the everyday players come opening day. Also, I am assuming that Young will pick up some ABs as the short straw in a DH platoon with Kubel against righties; their homunculi don't represent those splits, just their over all play. Keep in mind that these are not compared to league averages, but to one another, so don't panic tat Michael Cuddyer can't field worth a lick. Generating homunculi who are based on comparisons to league averages might be more revealing but this was more about seeing where the strengths and weaknesses are on the team, as opposed to trying to judge how they stack up to the league (they'd look pretty similar, anyways.) . By the way, the stat that a player's fielding ability is based on is is the Fielding Bible +/- per inning for the last 3 seasons (MLB only.) For Mauer, I looked at his rank as a catcher in terms of passed balls, wild pitches and runners thrown out, and used his MLB rank to approximate a number that was in line with how the other players' league ranks translated to their fielding numbers.

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by TfinNJ on 03/15 at 11:15 AM
Blogging • Permalink

Twins win two against the Yanks & upcoming interviews

The Twins pulled off two wins against the Yanks & Captain America over the past two days, despite the Yankees running out their $1b lineup in Saturday’s game. The completely meaningless unbeaten streak continues…

In very cool news, our own AJ26 has arranged an interview with Pat Neshek, sidearmer extraordinaire. In case you’re unfamiliar with the process, the way we do it here first involves starting a thread and then any user can submit questions for Mr. Neshek. After we get enough good (or disgusting) questions, the moderators and admins choose the best (or most disgusting) of them and send them to the interviewee. So, get your ass in that thread and post a question if you have one.

Other than that, expect the main page to remain in its current state for the next week. I’m off to Florida for Bike Week and if I’m lucky, a Spring Training game or two. If you have any questions or, God forbid, actually want to blog something on this site (where are you people?), email me at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) and I can get you set up remotely. If I don’t post, have a good week, kids!

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by rocketpig on 02/28 at 03:33 PM
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A few notes…

The front page is slowly coming together. I had two hours free today so I updated a few things and made it look slightly more BYTO-esque. We’re still looking for links so if you run a site and want to cross-link, email (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). In the next few days, I hope to either clean up the wiki or get the Picture of the Week back up and running. One thing at a time…

On the forums, we have news from LENIII that Cruz appears to be out of the picture. Disappointing, for there aren’t many adequate relievers on the market right now. It’s 2009 and the Twins pen is a long way from the glory days of just a few years ago. If you want to read user comments on the reliever market, you can find some here.

In more encouraging news, the Twins beat up on the Reds pretty badly today, with Peterson going granny late in the game. As always, if you have anything to say on this blog, go ahead and PM me on the forums.

Oh, this should make a few of you happy… POST REVIEWS ARE GONE IN THE FORUMS! Yes, I finally installed the module that gets rid of the “feature” that has been annoying you guys for so bloody long. Finally, game threads will no longer be an exercise in frustration as you try to submit the same post four times. Now, you can all focus on being annoyed at the incredibly stupid things you all say to each other while the Twins play.

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by rocketpig on 02/26 at 03:24 PM
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Did We Really Need 170+ Posts on this: A Take on the Joe Crede Signing

The recent hot topic of discussion for the Twins is Joe Crede. In the last couple of weeks, an independent survey of threads on BYTO’s message board shows that five of them involving Crede have gone over 50 posts. I guess I’m just not as excited by this news as some of you are.

I should start this by saying that this isn’t a Tony Batista, Ramon Ortiz or Livan Hernandez signing. Batista is probably the most relevant of the three, and I remember feeling a lot more certain that he would fail than Crede (though in Batista’s prime, he was a dead ringer for Crede in terms of performance). The difference is that Crede actually posted numbers last year, where Batista had spent 2005 not hitting in Japan. His team there wanted pretty much nothing to do with him after the season. All you really needed to do was look at the spare tire around him on the YouTube clip of him that was circulating in December, 2005 to realize this was a bad idea.

The Crede signing, however, is very reminiscent of another December, 2005 signing. That of Rondell White. Given White’s serious struggles in Minnesota, it’s easy to forget that he hit .313/.348/.489 for the Tigers in 2005 before cutting the year short due to shoulder injuries. Though the White move can be firmly knocked for how colossal a failure it was, it could’ve have worked had White stayed healthy—albeit not nearly well enough to be a long-term solution.

I generally like LaValle E. Neal’s work, but his article post-Crede signing made me vomit in my mouth a little. This is not a low-risk signing. The risk you take is putting up with Rondell White II: Attack of the Clones for about 200 at bats before shifting to a Buscher/Harris platoon. The payoff isn’t an All-Star, either. Simply put,:

• Alex Rodriguez is the best third baseman in the AL.
• Evan Longoria is the best third baseman in the AL in waiting.
• After that, you have a group of third baseman fighting to be #3 that includes Scott Rolen, Melvin Mora, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell,  Carlos Guillen, Josh Fields, Alex Gordon (who may also still be the best third baseman in the AL in waiting) Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock and, yes, Joe Crede.

Granted, this is still an upgrade from where the Twins were from last year. But even a healthy Crede is far from the ideal. He’s a great defensive third baseman who happens to hit right-handed with some pop. Those are things the Twins need. At the same time, he’s never going to hit for great average, doesn’t draw many walks, tries to pull everything and is moving into a park where the last one hurts him severely (Crede’s career OPS at the Metrodome and it’s excellent hitting backdrop is a robust ..597, so even if he’s healthy he could be a complete flop). And if everything I just said there is wrong, Boras will use his good season as leverage to get a 4 year, $50 million contract from some team next offseason. Granted, if that happens, you can flip it around to good news as well. That means the Twins likely get type-A compensation out of Crede and additional draft picks.

The point is, this move can be spinned to whatever point of view you want, unless your point of view is somehow that this puts the Twins over the top as the favorites in the A.L. Central. The division right now is closer than the Nixon/Kennedy presidential race, and any one of the five teams in it can win.  Upon closer look:

• The Tigers probably have the best offense in the division, and the potential for a pretty good rotation if they can get Verlander and Bonderman to rebound
• The Indians are right behind them in terms of offense, and possibly ahead if Hafner rebounds. The rotation isn’t lights out, but it’s solid from 1-5.
• The White Sox aren’t anything outstanding, but they don’t have many weak links either.
• The Royals, surprisingly, have the division’s best 1-2 punch in their rotation right now in Greinke and Meche, and a middle of the line-up that could explode around Butler and Gordon, or could sink.

The Twins are essentially the White Sox with more potential. They’re pretty much solid across the board, and if Crede works out that’s even more true. But there isn’t that one outstanding piece that puts them over the top, unless Mauer goes from Mientciewicz to Olerud in terms of power, Liriano regains his stuff, Young hits for the power that the minor league version of himself did or Kubel hits for the average the minor league version of himself did.

Signing Crede (or Juan Cruz, for that matter) has the potential to be a nifty little move. In the long run though, it’s going to take more than Crede to get the team where we all want it to go.

 

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by jewscott on 02/24 at 03:42 PM
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Risk and Reward: The Joe Crede Signing

On the day of the first full-squad workout, the Twins added a new player to the squad.

Verifying reports that began to surface last night, free agent third baseman Joe Crede is expected to officially join the Twins in Fort Myers today or tomorrow, and will hopefully be ready for the Twins’ first game on the 25th. The deal Crede wanted, once rumored to be as high as $7 million base salary with another $5 million in incentives, was a far cry from the one he received.

The final deal included a $2.5 million base salary with incentives based on PAs that would bring the total contract to $7 million. The Twins managed to get the player they wanted without overpaying, which ought to make fans and management alike excited about this move. This deal minimizes the risks associated with signing a player who has missed parts of the last two seasons with injuries; the Twins potentially could pay Crede less than they are paying offensive black hole Nick Punto.

Had the Twins caved to the pressure and signed him for the $7 million-$12 million he wanted, it would have been a mistake of Rondell White proportions. Having the contract’s incentives be triggered by plate appearances could be a catch-22 for the Twins. While it protects them from paying Crede if he is seriously hurt, it increases the likelihood that Crede will try to play through pain.

Giving some players an incentive towards toughness can be a good thing, but Crede is known as one of the tougher players in the league, and doesn’t need any further push in that direction. In fact, trying to play through too many injuries could prove more harmful to the Twins than helpful. Having Brenden Harris and Brian Buscher as backups should give Ron Gardenhire the buffer he needs to feel comfortable pulling the plug on Crede if his herniated disc still proves to be problematic.

On paper, Crede looks like a phenomenal addition, especially if he gets anywhere near his 2006 numbers, which isn’t out of the question. Defensively, he should be solid at the very minimum and could be near gold glove level if he is healthy. The question is what he can produce offensively. At this point, it would be prudent to point out that his career line isn’t superb, but also that in 97 games, he hit more home runs than the Twins got the entire 2008 season from the third base position.

The Twins will soon find out whether they found a bargain or paid fair value for a high injury risk player.

Now that Billy Smith has provided a player to fill the Twins rather gaping hole at third base, it is up to Ron Gardenhire to make sure that he gets the most out whoever he decides to run onto the field.

originally published at Bleacher Report

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Posted by dwade on 02/24 at 11:36 AM
(0) Comments • Permalink

To the Delight of the Minnesota Chiropractor’s Association, Joe Crede is a Twin

I wish I had time for a blog on this but I’m wrapped up in site work. If any of you faithful BYTOers wish to put your thoughts to cyberspace on this or any other Twins-related subject, PM me on the forums or email me at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

On a related note, we need some smartass comments on the Wiki for our new favorite third baseman:

http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/wiki/index.php?title=Joe_Crede

For those of you wishing to link to BYTO, we have a new man handling that because frankly, I’m too lazy to ever stay on top of it. Statfreak will handle all cross-linking to the site and if you wish to get on board, email him at (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Anyway, keep on battlin’ and let’s hope Joey doesn’t throw his back out on the way up the dugout steps in early April.

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by rocketpig on 02/21 at 08:18 PM
(0) Comments • Permalink

Since I’m Taking my Sweet Ass Time Finishing This…

I’ll post up a few links because I’m too lazy to finish the menu design right now. Or change the colors. Or even center the damn thing, really. All in due time.

Forums:
http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/forum/

Wiki (come on people, we need to bring this back to life!):
http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/wiki/

Old blogs:
http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/majorblog/

I implore you guys to start writing on the Wiki again. I just spent a few minutes on it and there is pure comedy gold to be found in those descriptions. Get to it, people.

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by rocketpig on 02/20 at 10:46 PM
(0) Comments • Permalink

Like the new layout, Nancy?

BYTO is closing its doors in favor of a totally sweet blog about flowers, puppy dogs, and Verve’s wife.

Actually, this is just a template I found that has the features I wanted without having to code it all myself. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be adding Picture of the Week, The Bitch Box, and several other features the site had when it launched in ‘06. The colors will be changing and the final product will be completely different than anything BYTO has seen in the past. My goal is to have it all up and running in a polished state by Opening Day. If you have any suggestions, questions, or just want to call me names, visit the thread below:

http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=15173&p=230175#p230175

As always, the forums can be found at http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/forum/

Be sure to check out our BYTO forums for more discussion and information.

Posted by rocketpig on 02/19 at 06:30 PM
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